'A weak monsoon always spells disaster. But it's too early to have a pessimistic view.'
The India Meteorological Department forecasts the southwest monsoon to arrive in Kerala in the next two to three days, slightly delayed from the typical June 1 start. The department also predicts below-normal rainfall for the season due to emerging El Nino conditions.
The same development would benefit the progress of the north-east monsoon, also known as the 'reverse monsoon'.
The monthly average rainfall over India is expected to be below normal during July, the India Meteorological Department said on Tuesday in its monthly forecast.
Steps to improve governance, instill confidence in the government machinery and streamlining function across the different ministries are also important to feed the positive mood, the DBS report added.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the June-September southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over India is expected to be 90 per cent of the long-period average. While the Northeast is likely to witness normal rainfall, the remaining parts of the country may see below normal rainfall.
India's retail inflation surged to 5.54 per cent in September, primarily due to a significant increase in onion and other food prices, remaining just within the Reserve Bank of India's tolerance band. This marks the highest inflation since the new series with base year 2024 took effect in January.
India's economy is projected to lose momentum in the second half of fiscal 2026-27, with tighter financial conditions, elevated energy prices, and broadening inflation pressures posing significant risks, according to DBS Bank economist Radhika Rao.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted an early onset of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, expected around May 26. This marks the beginning of the crucial rainy season for India.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that conditions are becoming favourable for the onset of the southwest monsoon over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands towards the end of this week.
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
Leading Fast-Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) companies in India are expressing strong optimism for the current fiscal year, anticipating robust consumption trends, significant growth, and improved profit margins. This positive outlook is largely driven by resilient demand and the expected easing of elevated input costs, despite ongoing inflationary pressures and potential weather volatility.
Fitch Ratings forecasts a 9 per cent aggregate revenue increase for rated Indian corporates in the current fiscal year (FY27), a stronger outlook compared to the 5 per cent estimated for FY26, which is expected to keep credit metrics stable despite potential global and domestic challenges.
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
The Reserve Bank of India has marginally increased its GDP forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent while slightly lowering the inflation projection to 5 per cent. The central bank noted that while domestic economic activity shows resilience, global turbulence, particularly re-escalating conflicts and volatile oil prices, continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
India's wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) increased to 9.92 per cent in August, up from 9.78 per cent in July, primarily due to rising prices across food, manufactured items, and fuel and power sectors.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
India's wholesale price inflation (WPI) increased to 9.87 per cent in June, up from 9.68 per cent in May, primarily due to significant price increases in non-food and food products, with food inflation alone rising to 5.49 per cent.
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 4.45 per cent in July, up from 4.38 per cent in June, primarily due to higher food prices, particularly onions and ginger. This marks the second consecutive month the inflation rate has remained above the Reserve Bank's median target.
The Reserve Bank of India has increased its retail inflation projection for 2026-27 to 5.1 per cent, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6 per cent. This revision is primarily attributed to mounting input costs, driven by the pass-through of higher global energy prices to domestic petrol and diesel rates, which have seen significant increases since May.
The southwest monsoon has advanced across northern Indian states, leading to widespread rainfall, waterlogging, road blockages, and rain-related deaths, particularly in Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan. The Centre is monitoring the situation, especially concerning potential drought conditions in some areas due to the El Nino effect.
ITC reported a 16.2 per cent year-on-year drop in consolidated net profit to 4,394.13 crore in Q1 FY27, primarily due to a significant increase in taxes on its cigarette business. Consolidated net revenues also declined by 11.1 per cent to 19,114 crore, missing analyst estimates.
A new study reveals that global warming has accelerated significantly since 2015, even after accounting for natural climate fluctuations. Researchers express concern that current efforts to curb emissions are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, addressing the UN General Assembly, condemned the targeting of commercial shipping and seafarers in the Gulf, calling it "simply unacceptable." He also voiced deep concern over the "weaponisation of everything," which he stated has severe consequences for Global South nations, impacting peace, progress, and development globally. India urged restraint, de-escalation, and protection of civilians, while also highlighting the 4F crisis (food, fuel, fertiliser, finance) faced by developing countries.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has maintained its benchmark policy rate at 5.25 per cent for the fourth consecutive meeting, prioritising clarity on inflation trends, particularly concerning energy costs and geopolitical developments.
India's wholesale price index (WPI) inflation marginally eased to 9.78 per cent in July 2026, down from 9.87 per cent in June, primarily due to a cooling in the prices of fuel, power, and food items, marking the first month-on-month drop under the new 2022-23 base year.
India's automobile retail sales surged by 21.83 per cent year-on-year in June, reaching 25,57,234 units, marking the best June ever recorded across all segments, according to the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA).
India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
The Maharashtra government has declared 265 out of 358 talukas as drought-affected, covering 74% of the state, due to significant rainfall deficit. This declaration activates 'Trigger-1' of the state's drought management framework, leading to the announcement of various relief measures for farmers and residents, including loan restructuring, revenue concessions, and provisions for water and fodder.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant decline for the third consecutive day, with the Sensex tumbling 1,092 points and Nifty closing below 24,550. This downturn was primarily driven by the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement.
'Without that one critical irrigation, the entire crop can be lost.'
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
Tamil Nadu Chief Minister C Joseph Vijay opened the sluices of the Stanley Reservoir in Mettur on Tuesday for irrigation in the Cauvery delta districts.
Weather watchers said it can't be known till May whether El Nio will impact the monsoon or not.
'The real shock is going to be from a deficient monsoon.'
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
The Indian government has approved the introduction of one billion polymer banknotes in Rs 10 and Rs 20 denominations for field trials, aiming to enhance durability. This move comes as the Finance Minister also addressed Parliament on declining retail inflation, GST reforms, and other fiscal measures taken to support the economy and household consumption.
