Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
Conditions were becoming favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of the south peninsula and east India and adjoining areas between June 18 and 21.
This may also be the second-strongest El Nino after 1998. El Nino winds bring drastic changes in the weather pattern, which will hit the agriculture sector.
India is likely to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country in the March to May period, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
The southwest monsoon has arrived in Mumbai 16 days before its usual date, making it the earliest arrival since 1950. This early onset follows the monsoon's arrival in Kerala, the southernmost state, on Saturday, marking the earliest arrival since 2009. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, with rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm considered 'normal'. The monsoon is crucial for India's economy, providing vital water for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
Heatwave may abate over most parts of North India in next two days; temperatures likely to drop by 2-3C.
East and northeast India recorded 29 per cent rain deficit -- 141.5 mm against the normal of 199.9 mm -- from March 1 to May 3.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
Ten to 20 days of heatwave are expected against the normal of four to eight days in the entire April-June period.
India has received 20 per cent less rainfall since the start of the monsoon period on June 1, with the rain-bearing system making no significant progress between June 12 and 18, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Heatwave conditions have been prevailing in Odisha since April 15 and the Gangetic West Bengal since April 17, according to the MeT department.
Addressing a press conference virtually, India Meteorological Department Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said September was likely to witness normal rainfall in the range of 91-109 per cent of the long period average of 167.9 mm.
Lakhs of voters will have to bear the searing heat when they step out to exercise their franchise in the second phase of the Lok Sabha elections on Friday.
East India, along with a major portion of central India, is likely to be at a higher risk of being rain deficient, especially during the first half of the season.
The planet experienced its warmest January on record last month despite the development of La Nia, a climate pattern that usually brings cooler global temperatures, the European climate agency said on Thursday. This comes on the heels of the Earth experiencing its hottest year on record in 2024, also the first to see global average temperatures rise 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), January 2025 recorded an average temperature of 13.23 degrees Celsius, 0.09 degrees warmer than the previous hottest January (2024) and 0.79 degrees above the 1991-2020 average. Scientists also found that the Earth's temperature in January was 1.75 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. Global temperatures have stayed above the 1.5-degree mark for 18 of the last 19 months.
Dozens of farmers have already committed suicide in India after damage from unseasonal rains this year.
El Nino refers to abnormal warming of surface ocean waters in the Pacific that disrupts weather pattern causing drought and floods in many regions of the world.
The El Nino risks for this year is rising in India and it could result in sub-par rains, says a report.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has officially confirmed that 2023 is the hottest year on record by a huge margin, smashing global temperature records.
The IMD DG said there should not be an impression that climate change leads to rise in the temperature, but on the contrary, it leads to erratic weather.
India is set to experience extreme heat during the April to June period, with the central and western peninsular parts expected to face the worst impact, the IMD said on Monday as the country prepares for seven-phase general elections from April 19.
Sri Lanka and southern India could continue to experience higher than normal rainfall and this could cause further flooding, particularly urban flooding, in certain locations, the report said.
After a stellar run on the bourses that saw tractor stocks rise up to 52 per cent, analysts are turning cautious on the sector as muted demand trends may weigh in the near-term. Total volumes in the tractor segment for the last three quarters of the current financial year (9MFY24) have remained weak with VST Tillers, Escorts Kubota, and M&M seeing declines of 21 per cent, 5 per cent, and 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), respectively, during the period, amid patchy rainfall, delayed crop harvest, and lower reservoir level. Across industry, total domestic sales volume so far in the current financial year (April '23 to January '24) has declined 5 per cent Y-o-Y, as per Tractor Manufacturers Association (TMA).
Though early days, meteorologists point towards a neutral La Nina during the initial phase of the four-month monsoon season this year that starts from June. If this holds true, by the time the rains hit the mainland, it could mean there would be one less reason to worry about the prospects of the monsoon this year. Weathermen said making any accurate prediction of how El Nino will behave and what impact it can have on the progress and distribution of rains is difficult to say at this point. A clear picture will emerge around late May or early June.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) seems to have taken a cautious stand over the World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) projection of a 'poor monsoon' due to a probable 'El Nino' impact. The IMD did not agree with WMO's projections, saying, "El Nino and the progress of monsoon are not mutually exclusive events", and remained non-committal over its earlier projection of a "normal monsoon" for the June-September 2009 season.
Deputy Chief Minister D K Shivakumar said the borewell in his house in Sadashivanagar in the state capital has gone dry for the first time. This happened despite the fact that Sadashivanagar is located next to Sankey Lake.
El Nino is expected to occur in August-September, but it is unlikely to have any major impact on the monsoon, and the weatherman expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which has a strong influence on rainfall in the country.
There is a substantial possibility of the emergence of La Nina, the opposite of El Nino, which invariably has a positive influence on the monsoon.
The five warmest years in Indian weather history have occurred in the past 14 years -- the others being 2009, 2017 and 2010, in order of intensity.
'The first two months of monsoon are not looking good.' 'In case both the halves fail, it is going to be misery.'
For the second successive year, Monsoon is likely to be below normal with parts of north-west and central India to be the most affected.
With the monsoon set to start in the country this week, the Meteorological Department has placed the odds of El Nino -- which can affect wind patterns and trigger both floods and sharply reduced rains -- at 60 per cent.
Pre-monsoon rainfall, colloquial referred to as "mango showers", is vital to many parts of the country.
The seasonal temperature would be above normal by more than one degree Celsius over Northwest India.
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