India's retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), increased to 3.48 per cent in April, up from 3.40 per cent in March, primarily due to a surge in prices of gold and silver jewellery, as well as certain kitchen staples like tomatoes and cauliflower.
A new study reveals that global warming has accelerated significantly since 2015, even after accounting for natural climate fluctuations. Researchers express concern that current efforts to curb emissions are insufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.
Indian benchmark stock indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant decline for the third consecutive day, with the Sensex tumbling 1,092 points and Nifty closing below 24,550. This downturn was primarily driven by the India Meteorological Department's forecast of a below-normal southwest monsoon and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire arrangement.
'Geopolitical risks and their impact on oil prices, if any, are another concern for global markets, particularly for India.'
In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
The BMC is closely monitoring reservoir levels and enforcing water conservation measures as concerns over supply grow.
The report notes that equities had faced pressure from elevated valuation premiums, subdued nominal gross domestic product (GDP) and earnings growth, sustained foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure euphoria, and external shocks including US tariffs and a spike in crude oil prices due to geopolitical tensions in West Asia. However, several of these factors are now reversing.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
With the southwest monsoon stalled over southern Maharashtra, India is facing a nationwide rainfall deficit of 41 percent between June 4 and June 18, according to the latest India meteorological department (IMD) data.
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 8.30 per cent in April, up from 3.88 per cent in March, primarily driven by a significant increase in the prices of fuel, power, and crude petroleum, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry.
Weather watchers said it can't be known till May whether El Nio will impact the monsoon or not.
ITC reported a 6.1 per cent year-on-year growth in its consolidated adjusted net profit from continuing operations, reaching ~5,469.74 crore in the January-March quarter (Q4FY26), primarily fuelled by strong performances in its cigarettes and non-cigarette fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) businesses.
'Can you believe there are over 26,500 deaths linked to heatwave-driven ozone in 2024?'
Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
This is the time for India to plan forward fully, with the goal of Atmanirbharata, and energy security. The Persian Gulf is no longer a reliable source, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Though the summer is expected to be hotter, global and domestic forecasts point to good rains.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Total area impacted across India pegged at 18.9 mn hectares.
Climate scientists warn that climate change is intensifying heatwaves in India, with the cooling effects of La Nia potentially becoming less effective in a warmer future. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an early summer with above-normal temperatures and intense heatwave spells, following an unusually dry winter and the warmest February since 1901. Experts emphasize the role of human-caused climate change, along with natural climate drivers like El Nio and La Nia, in shaping weather patterns. While La Nia typically brings cooler temperatures, scientists suggest that under climate change, its ability to mitigate heatwaves may be diminished.
'Monsoon is the pran (life) of our water system.' 'A weak monsoon will have a very negative impact on crops and people's lives.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
India's peak power demand is projected to hit 270 GW this summer, surpassing last year's record of 250 GW.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
Spurred by cyclone Remal, the southwest monsoon set in over the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast on Thursday, a day earlier than forecast by the weather office.
This may also be the second-strongest El Nino after 1998. El Nino winds bring drastic changes in the weather pattern, which will hit the agriculture sector.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
Conditions were becoming favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of the south peninsula and east India and adjoining areas between June 18 and 21.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
India is likely to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country in the March to May period, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
