In the coming months, globally as well as in India, rice might remain a hot potato.
A poor monsoon could drag overall economic growth and compound the impact of the West Asia conflict on the Indian economy.
Monsoon revival over weekend likely, but second-half rainfall may be muted. If the rains become scarce after mid-August, the standing kharif crops might be impacted
'The MPC is likely to prioritise the key mandate, which is inflation, while relying on other instruments to stabilise the currency and bond markets.'
India is likely to witness a mixed temperature pattern along with wetter-than-usual conditions in May, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) indicating that rainfall across the country is "most likely to be above normal" at over 110 per cent of the long period average (LPA).
The Indian rupee is highly vulnerable among Asian currencies, with Barclays and MUFG warning of a potential depreciation towards 100/$ if the West Asia conflict persists, driven by widening current account deficits and elevated crude oil prices.
India's wholesale price inflation surged to 8.30 per cent in April, up from 3.88 per cent in March, primarily driven by a significant increase in the prices of fuel, power, and crude petroleum, according to data from the commerce and industry ministry.
ITC reported a 6.1 per cent year-on-year growth in its consolidated adjusted net profit from continuing operations, reaching ~5,469.74 crore in the January-March quarter (Q4FY26), primarily fuelled by strong performances in its cigarettes and non-cigarette fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) businesses.
The finance ministry on Thursday raised concerns over the possible impact of El Nio conditions on India this year, saying if recent forecasts came true, the country could see lower agricultural output and higher inflation. "Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Nio conditions in India this year. "If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices," the ministry said in its monthly economic review.
Domestic-focused agricultural chemical (agrochem) companies could face near-term headwinds, given the worries on the El Nio effect on monsoons, higher inventory, and pressure on margins. Some of these were reflected in the October-December quarter (third quarter, or Q3) results of companies and may impact them in the current quarter (fourth quarter, or Q4) as well. Nuvama Research pointed out that the sector witnessed mixed performance during the quarter as global agrochem and domestic fertiliser companies maintained growth momentum, while adverse agronomical conditions and excess channel inventory weighed on domestic market volume offtake.
This is the time for India to plan forward fully, with the goal of Atmanirbharata, and energy security. The Persian Gulf is no longer a reliable source, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Weather watchers said it can't be known till May whether El Nio will impact the monsoon or not.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Several global models are predicting El Nio to appear around the second half of the year, which are the crucial rain-bearing months.
'Monsoon is the pran (life) of our water system.' 'A weak monsoon will have a very negative impact on crops and people's lives.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Sanjay Malhotra is now confronting the classic growth-inflation tradeoff, a situation exacerbated by the West Asia war, which threatens to end the 'goldilocks period' of low inflation and robust growth.
Climate scientists warn that climate change is intensifying heatwaves in India, with the cooling effects of La Nia potentially becoming less effective in a warmer future. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an early summer with above-normal temperatures and intense heatwave spells, following an unusually dry winter and the warmest February since 1901. Experts emphasize the role of human-caused climate change, along with natural climate drivers like El Nio and La Nia, in shaping weather patterns. While La Nia typically brings cooler temperatures, scientists suggest that under climate change, its ability to mitigate heatwaves may be diminished.
Though the summer is expected to be hotter, global and domestic forecasts point to good rains.
Revenue collection next financial year may be affected, and, along with this, subsidies on food and fertilisers can go up if the war in West Asia drags for long, according to experts.
Total area impacted across India pegged at 18.9 mn hectares.
India's peak power demand is projected to hit 270 GW this summer, surpassing last year's record of 250 GW.
Monetary Policy- Easing expected to happen later this financial year.
India is likely to see above-normal rainfall in the four-month monsoon season (June to September) with cumulative rainfall rainfall estimated at 106 percent of the long-period average (87 cm), he said.
Spurred by cyclone Remal, the southwest monsoon set in over the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast on Thursday, a day earlier than forecast by the weather office.
Israel has for more than two decades and several US presidencies worked to draw the United States into a full-scale war with Iran. Having finally achieved that, the last thing it wants is Trump declaring victory and going home, as he is prone to do. Ali Larijani was the figure most capable of handing Trump a negotiated exit with something to show for it. Without Larijani, the road to an exit gets considerably narrower. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
This may also be the second-strongest El Nino after 1998. El Nino winds bring drastic changes in the weather pattern, which will hit the agriculture sector.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
Conditions were becoming favourable for further advance of the southwest monsoon over some more parts of the south peninsula and east India and adjoining areas between June 18 and 21.
The southwest monsoon season concluded on Saturday with India receiving 'below-average' cumulative rainfall -- 820 mm compared to the long-period average of 868.6 mm -- in an El Nino year.
Skymet expects a good monsoon over western and southern India.
The country can expect normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season as a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and a lower snow cover over the northern hemisphere are likely to counter the evolving El Nino conditions, the India meteorological department (IMD) said on Tuesday.
India is likely to see above-normal maximum and minimum temperatures in most parts of the country in the March to May period, IMD director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said at a press conference.
India is likely to experience below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, with a 20 per cent chance of drought due to the end of La Nina conditions and the potential for El Nino to take hold, private forecasting agency Skymet Weather said on Monday.
On May 15, the weather office had announced the onset of monsoon over Kerala by May 31.
June rainfall accounts for 15 percent of the total precipitation of 87 cm recorded during the four-month monsoon season in the country.
East and northeast India recorded 29 per cent rain deficit -- 141.5 mm against the normal of 199.9 mm -- from March 1 to May 3.
Scientists had earlier said the cyclone pulled the moisture and convection, impacting the intensity of the monsoon and delaying its onset over Kerala.
Ten to 20 days of heatwave are expected against the normal of four to eight days in the entire April-June period.
The southwest monsoon has arrived in Mumbai 16 days before its usual date, making it the earliest arrival since 1950. This early onset follows the monsoon's arrival in Kerala, the southernmost state, on Saturday, marking the earliest arrival since 2009. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts an above-normal rainfall for the 2025 monsoon season, with rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the 50-year average of 87 cm considered 'normal'. The monsoon is crucial for India's economy, providing vital water for agriculture and replenishing reservoirs.
Heatwave conditions have been prevailing in Odisha since April 15 and the Gangetic West Bengal since April 17, according to the MeT department.
© 2026 Rediff.com - Advertise with us - Disclaimer - Privacy Policy - Sitemap - Feedback - About us - Terms of use - Grievances